prije 2 godine kada je postavljen ovaj post nije bilo govora o ratu i blokovskoj podijeli globalnoj
by one » 17 Dec 2020, 12:19
IMF
Scenario 1. The rise and fall of a global Central bank digital currency (CBDC). The
scenario is cast in the context of growing geopolitical divisions, which put a premium
on transactions via a neutral currency. A bloc of countries gains advantage by moving
first in developing comprehensive digital platforms, supported by strong governance
and institutions. The continued trend of growing importance of data services provides
an additional comparative advantage to the first-mover countries, which have the technology and infrastructure to offer and export such services. Favorable climate conditions
further provide a more cost-effective environment for the provision of digital services
(for example, sufficiently cold and relatively stable climates for data centers against the
backdrop of accelerating climate change). This bloc of countries issues a CBDC and
invests heavily in data infrastructure and cyber defense, generating a growing supply
of the CBDC-denominated financial instruments. The CBDC—seen as a trustworthy
and credible reserve currency because it provides safety and access and is backed by
high-tech secure platforms with low transaction costs—emerges as a major reserve currency. With central banks around the world holding more of the new CBDC, its share
in global reserves rises well above the levels consistent with the size and fiscal backing of
the economic bloc. Speculations about the extent of overvaluation of the CBDC expose
the system to large capital outflows and an unraveling of the CBDC’s position as a
major currency.
Scenario 2. A world of multiple private digital currencies. This scenario starts off
in a global setting wherein increased anxiety about governments’ capacity to deliver
on their socioeconomic objectives erodes credibility of public institutions, including
fiat currencies. In parallel, big technology companies continue to grow, offering more
services and platform payment instruments. Their efforts to enhance privacy and corporate governance pay off, and people increasingly prefer private payment platforms to
fiat currencies. Over time, as more people use the private payment instruments, these
become digital currencies—full-fledged private currencies that fulfill all the roles of
money. A few large digital currency areas emerge, on the basis of digital interconnectedness. Governments retreat from most of their roles as technology corporations expand
the scope of their services. National central banks lose relevance. AI is used to establish
exchange parities between digital currencies by facilitating price finding. To maintain
credibility of the system, a technology consortium is set up to supervise the digital
networks and provide emergency liquidity financing by pooling digital currencies across
currency areas. Traditional reserve assets thus cease to exist and are replaced by holdings
of private digital currencies.
danas ovaj drugi blok je vec duboko u digitalnom yuanu i sa rusima prave poseban platni sistem a zapad je u zakasnjenju
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-roo ... framework/
https://www.ledgerinsights.com/digital- ... mazon-ecb/
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-roo ... al-assets/
ali na zapadu je struktura moci slozenija i lobiji vise rade na usvajanju scenaria 2
lobiranje u toku...
We can protect financial privacy and promote individual economic freedom by embracing public blockchains and the stablecoins they support.
Or we can follow China's totalitarian lead by submitting to the panopticon of a CBDC.
Which way, western democracy?
The Administration must embrace the benefits of open, permissionless & private digital assets, rather than place prominence on central bank digital currencies, the benefits of which remain confounding.