Komentari trgovanja i dešavanja na tržištu
Re: Komentari
Zadnja dva dana na dvije BiH berze prometi veći nego na Ljubljanskoj i Zagrebačkoj berzi, ipak nije baš tako sve crno
Re: Komentari
Pa nakon redovno dosadnog novembra, idući mjesec bi mogao biti zanimljiviji. Današnje trgovanje je pokazalo da ima emitenata u nekoj vrsti niskog starta. Na elektroprivredi je pokupljena solidna količina a cijena je danas bila najviša u zadnjih godinu dana tj otkako su odradili "nekontrolisani pad". FDS pokušavaju skinuti sićom ali je potražnja nestrpljiva pa je teško uraditi bilo šta ispod 68 KM. Solana je u nekoj sličnoj situaciji a BH telecom će najvjerovatnije brzo preći 19 KM.
Jedino mi je sumnjiv Bosnalijek. Postoji mogućnost da njega drže na 14 KM kao što su ga neki raniji držali na 8 KM. Ali pošto je ovo daleko ozbiljnija ekipa od one sa početka godine onda bi puno teže moglo rasti preko 14 KM jer ako je to cijena za preuzimanje ostalih udjela malih dioničara onda će na sve načine držati taj nivo.
Jedino mi je sumnjiv Bosnalijek. Postoji mogućnost da njega drže na 14 KM kao što su ga neki raniji držali na 8 KM. Ali pošto je ovo daleko ozbiljnija ekipa od one sa početka godine onda bi puno teže moglo rasti preko 14 KM jer ako je to cijena za preuzimanje ostalih udjela malih dioničara onda će na sve načine držati taj nivo.
Re: Komentari
Telekom RS na 1,68 KM a ovaj naš se još pati 
Re: Komentari
Ni iz džepa ni u džep.
U stvari možda je bolje jer je gorivo bilo najskuplje na OMV-ovim pumpama. Za kvalitet ne znam, ali sam čuo da svakako i OMV nabavlja neka goriva u Bosanskom Brodu.
Rusi masivno ulaze na Balkan, Sberbank je kupila Volksbank, a vidjećemo ko će uzeti Hypo. Iz Sberbanke su rekli da nisu zainteresirani za Hypo Bank.
Dok Turska priča veliku (šuplju) priču o vraćanju na Balkan, Rusi pametno kupuju sve redom. Prije će Kinezi sa kapitalom ući u BiH nego Turska koja ima ovdje par dobrih ulaganja (Soda Lukavac i Natron) ali i špekulativnih nedobronamjernih poteza (Bosnia Airways, Pokušaj sa benzinskim pumpama...)
U stvari možda je bolje jer je gorivo bilo najskuplje na OMV-ovim pumpama. Za kvalitet ne znam, ali sam čuo da svakako i OMV nabavlja neka goriva u Bosanskom Brodu.
Rusi masivno ulaze na Balkan, Sberbank je kupila Volksbank, a vidjećemo ko će uzeti Hypo. Iz Sberbanke su rekli da nisu zainteresirani za Hypo Bank.
Dok Turska priča veliku (šuplju) priču o vraćanju na Balkan, Rusi pametno kupuju sve redom. Prije će Kinezi sa kapitalom ući u BiH nego Turska koja ima ovdje par dobrih ulaganja (Soda Lukavac i Natron) ali i špekulativnih nedobronamjernih poteza (Bosnia Airways, Pokušaj sa benzinskim pumpama...)
Re: Komentari
Prema Vladinom prijedlogu, proračun za iduću godinu iznosi 2,214 milijardi maraka i u odnosu na ovogodišnji povećan je za 215 milijuna, odnosno za 10,8 posto više nego ove godine. Planiran je deficit u vrijednosti nešto većoj od 418 milijuna maraka
-
montypython
- Posts: 4128
- Joined: 06 May 2010, 10:52
Re: Komentari
@Sabur 2
Jasno mi je da svako čuva svoju glavu. Međutim mislim da dolazi vrijeme kad će se morati prestati sa stalnim strahovanjima šta ko misli i jesu li svi saglasni. Ne može svaka menadžerska odluka biti niz dlaku i pod prijetnjom da će "radnici" doći prad parlament gurati se sa policajcima i sl. Moraće se početi donositi odluke a ne samo slagati se sa svima i pratiti šta vrh stranke nalaže.
Imamo očigledno katastrofalne političke odluke da se u penziju šalju ljudi od 40 ak godina potpuno radno sposobni tzv "borci" Isto je sa tzv "invalidima". Znam da ima i pravih ali mnogo je lažnih. Svi to znaju ali iz razloga čuvanja svoje glave i straha od demonstracija sile niko nema snage presjeći što će možda dovesti do kraha penzionog sistema ili bar do umanjenih penzija ljudima koji su ih zaslužili to jest onima koji su radili 40 godina.
Imamo firme sa velikim potencijalima koje tavore jer imaju 10 ili 50 % viška ljudi. a niko ih ne može otpustiti jer se boje, jer nema saglasnosti sindikata itd. Ispada da se sve odluke u zemlji, ekonomske i političke donose pod prijetnjom sile. Zašto bi sindikat trebao odobriti odluku menadžera? Je li to neko s srednjom šumarskom bolje bolje može donijeti odluku od menadžera ekonomiste. Mislim da tako jednostavno neće moći dugoročno jer će zemlja doći na rub izdrživosti. Znam da i ti znaš, da svjetske firme otpuste po nekoliko hiljada ljudi čim vide da broj zaposlenih nije optimalan, da im utiče na profit isl i to je normala. U nas se menadžeri hvale da imaju stotine ili hiljade ljudi viška i (i to koji ništa ne rade) i maltene ispadaju filantropi.
A za željeznice bih mnogo imao reći . Vozio sam se nedavno kroz Austriju 200 Km/h i sad kad pogledam ovo u nas dođe čovjeku da zaplače. Olupine. Direktor kuka kako će novi Talgo kompleti biti neisplativi a na kraju kad je uveden i ljudi se ovdje (Mostar) obradovali da će njim moći do Sarajeva i bez velikog napora odraditi posao i vratiti se isti dan otkrivam da po redu vožnje voz polazi u 16 00. Besmislica. Dakle trebao bih otići u Sa poslijepodne, platiti hotel par stotina KM, noćiti tamo i vratiti se sutra uz izgubljeni dan. itd itd...
Ne govorim ovo sve tebi, 95 % se slažem sa tvojim stavovima u vezi drugih tema, ali jednostavno oko svake i najuže teme ima toliko more gluposti da bi čovjek mogao knjigu napisati.
Jasno mi je da svako čuva svoju glavu. Međutim mislim da dolazi vrijeme kad će se morati prestati sa stalnim strahovanjima šta ko misli i jesu li svi saglasni. Ne može svaka menadžerska odluka biti niz dlaku i pod prijetnjom da će "radnici" doći prad parlament gurati se sa policajcima i sl. Moraće se početi donositi odluke a ne samo slagati se sa svima i pratiti šta vrh stranke nalaže.
Imamo očigledno katastrofalne političke odluke da se u penziju šalju ljudi od 40 ak godina potpuno radno sposobni tzv "borci" Isto je sa tzv "invalidima". Znam da ima i pravih ali mnogo je lažnih. Svi to znaju ali iz razloga čuvanja svoje glave i straha od demonstracija sile niko nema snage presjeći što će možda dovesti do kraha penzionog sistema ili bar do umanjenih penzija ljudima koji su ih zaslužili to jest onima koji su radili 40 godina.
Imamo firme sa velikim potencijalima koje tavore jer imaju 10 ili 50 % viška ljudi. a niko ih ne može otpustiti jer se boje, jer nema saglasnosti sindikata itd. Ispada da se sve odluke u zemlji, ekonomske i političke donose pod prijetnjom sile. Zašto bi sindikat trebao odobriti odluku menadžera? Je li to neko s srednjom šumarskom bolje bolje može donijeti odluku od menadžera ekonomiste. Mislim da tako jednostavno neće moći dugoročno jer će zemlja doći na rub izdrživosti. Znam da i ti znaš, da svjetske firme otpuste po nekoliko hiljada ljudi čim vide da broj zaposlenih nije optimalan, da im utiče na profit isl i to je normala. U nas se menadžeri hvale da imaju stotine ili hiljade ljudi viška i (i to koji ništa ne rade) i maltene ispadaju filantropi.
A za željeznice bih mnogo imao reći . Vozio sam se nedavno kroz Austriju 200 Km/h i sad kad pogledam ovo u nas dođe čovjeku da zaplače. Olupine. Direktor kuka kako će novi Talgo kompleti biti neisplativi a na kraju kad je uveden i ljudi se ovdje (Mostar) obradovali da će njim moći do Sarajeva i bez velikog napora odraditi posao i vratiti se isti dan otkrivam da po redu vožnje voz polazi u 16 00. Besmislica. Dakle trebao bih otići u Sa poslijepodne, platiti hotel par stotina KM, noćiti tamo i vratiti se sutra uz izgubljeni dan. itd itd...
Ne govorim ovo sve tebi, 95 % se slažem sa tvojim stavovima u vezi drugih tema, ali jednostavno oko svake i najuže teme ima toliko more gluposti da bi čovjek mogao knjigu napisati.
Re: Komentari
@monty
Ne moze se raditi protiv zakona. Ako zakon kaze da nema otpustanja bez otpremnine, a budzeta za to nema, ne moze se presijecati. Ako ne mozes otpustiti covjeka a da mu prethodno nisi uplatio sve doprinose, otrustanja nema, itd, itd.
Dakle biti direktor nije beskrajna vlast nego odgovornost za firmu (vlasnike) i zaposlene. Postupanje mimo zakona moze dovesti do tezih steta za firmu koje bi sigurno nastupile nakon odstetnih zahtjeva.
Druga stvar je zasto te firme imaju viskove zaposlenih. To je politika. ja stalno govorim da je u ovom vremenu sindikat najbolji poslodavcev prijatelja, ako ga poslodavac uvazava i postuje zakon. Nazalost kod nas se to tako ne percepira a ni sindikalci rijetko kad znaju sta drugo osim galame i frke. Sindikalac nije najgrlatiji i najhrabriji medju radnicima kao u staro doba, nego treba biti pametan covjek koji zna pregovarati i sa kvalitetnim saradnicima na pitanju ekonomije i prava. Svaki zreo sindikat ce biti spreman da podrzi kvalitetan plan za ozdravljenje firme i pomogne poslodavcu da se sprovede sto bezbolnije, ali na osnovu zakona i postovanja prava radnika.
Ne moze se raditi protiv zakona. Ako zakon kaze da nema otpustanja bez otpremnine, a budzeta za to nema, ne moze se presijecati. Ako ne mozes otpustiti covjeka a da mu prethodno nisi uplatio sve doprinose, otrustanja nema, itd, itd.
Dakle biti direktor nije beskrajna vlast nego odgovornost za firmu (vlasnike) i zaposlene. Postupanje mimo zakona moze dovesti do tezih steta za firmu koje bi sigurno nastupile nakon odstetnih zahtjeva.
Druga stvar je zasto te firme imaju viskove zaposlenih. To je politika. ja stalno govorim da je u ovom vremenu sindikat najbolji poslodavcev prijatelja, ako ga poslodavac uvazava i postuje zakon. Nazalost kod nas se to tako ne percepira a ni sindikalci rijetko kad znaju sta drugo osim galame i frke. Sindikalac nije najgrlatiji i najhrabriji medju radnicima kao u staro doba, nego treba biti pametan covjek koji zna pregovarati i sa kvalitetnim saradnicima na pitanju ekonomije i prava. Svaki zreo sindikat ce biti spreman da podrzi kvalitetan plan za ozdravljenje firme i pomogne poslodavcu da se sprovede sto bezbolnije, ali na osnovu zakona i postovanja prava radnika.
Re: Komentari
Pitaju se, pitaju....
When will Balkan markets perform?
Balkan markets have performed poorly over the last five years and, despite an enormous ‘catch-up’ potential, growth continues to disappoint. During an investor trip to Moscow, East Capital’s senior advisor Tim Umberger identified potential triggers for a revaluation of the markets.
The Balkan region comprises a large market with around 50 million people in the former Yugoslavian republics, Romania and Bulgaria, and coming from a low base, with public debt levels far below other European countries, there is a strong potential GDP growth. But for the time being, growth is not really in place.
“The region is very much linked to the Eurozone because of its geographical position, capital flows and ownership in the banking sector, and growth has been hit by the debt crises,” said Tim Umberger, senior advisor and Balkan expert within East Capital’s investment team, during an investor trip in Moscow in late November.
Equity markets in particular have been hit hard by the financial turmoil. Compared to before the financial crisis, Balkan markets are down between 70 and 90 percent, making them among the worst performing in the world over the last five years. Umberger attributes that to a combination of factors.
“First of all, these markets lack strong domestic institutional investors and when international investors fled frontier markets, no one was there to absorb the shock,” he said. “Because the ‘frontier story’ was very popular before the crisis, capital inflows to the Balkans had been enormous.
“In addition, a lot of shares had also been bought with bank loans, with shares as collateral, and later on banks were selling these shares in a falling market,” he added.
According to the IMF, the Balkans will be able to show high long-term sustainable growth of between 3.5 and 5 percent annually, and this is of course important for the long-term investment case. However, the question investors, including those present at Hotel InterContinental during East Capital's investor trip, are asking themselves is when, and why markets will start to perform.
“I think we will see the most significant turnaround during the summer, when Croatia enters the EU, Austrian and Italian banks start performing better and Russian banks also will be present,” Umberger said, pointing out that financing is very important for the region.
“For the time being, there is a lack of capital and governments need cash, which will push privatisation. These privatisations are potential triggers for the market,” Umberger said, and referred to recent events in his own home country Slovenia where markets have performed well lately.
“In September, the government finally announced that it would pass a number of reforms, of which privatisation was the most important, and together with its successful refinancing in the bond market, the Slovenian market is now up 20 percent,” Umberger said.
Besides privatisations, Umberger said strategic deals, which have been accelerating in the Balkans recently, may also explain why some markets have started to improve.
“Currently, there is a large discrepancy between market and strategic deals. A consumer company can be taken over for 9-10 times EBITDA, which is completely comparable, sector vise, to other regions, while you can buy a similar company in the market for 3-4 times,” he said.
When it comes to politics, EU accession is still key for most of the countries that are not yet part of the union. Despite its current troubles, Umberger argues that EU membership remains the best proposition.
“Countries will get more money out of the EU than they will pay in, but I think EU accession is more important as a process than the actual accession, because it means that there is a development of the legal and institutional framework, which is important for investors,” he said. “Also, all these countries are candidate countries, which means they already have a free trade agreement in place.”
The Balkans serves an important role for countries trying to get closer to Europe. Lately, Russian and Turkish state companies in particular have broadened their geographical reach across the Balkans, both organically and via acquisitions, and Umberger predicts changes in financing going forward.
“The Balkans is a clear convergence case and convergence growth will continue, but I think the sources of capital will be more diversified," he said. "Previously, the region was more or less relying on the EU in many ways, ranging from banking to FDIs (Foreign Direct Investments).”
Emil Holmström
[email protected]
http://www.eastcapital.com/en/node/15418
When will Balkan markets perform?
Balkan markets have performed poorly over the last five years and, despite an enormous ‘catch-up’ potential, growth continues to disappoint. During an investor trip to Moscow, East Capital’s senior advisor Tim Umberger identified potential triggers for a revaluation of the markets.
The Balkan region comprises a large market with around 50 million people in the former Yugoslavian republics, Romania and Bulgaria, and coming from a low base, with public debt levels far below other European countries, there is a strong potential GDP growth. But for the time being, growth is not really in place.
“The region is very much linked to the Eurozone because of its geographical position, capital flows and ownership in the banking sector, and growth has been hit by the debt crises,” said Tim Umberger, senior advisor and Balkan expert within East Capital’s investment team, during an investor trip in Moscow in late November.
Equity markets in particular have been hit hard by the financial turmoil. Compared to before the financial crisis, Balkan markets are down between 70 and 90 percent, making them among the worst performing in the world over the last five years. Umberger attributes that to a combination of factors.
“First of all, these markets lack strong domestic institutional investors and when international investors fled frontier markets, no one was there to absorb the shock,” he said. “Because the ‘frontier story’ was very popular before the crisis, capital inflows to the Balkans had been enormous.
“In addition, a lot of shares had also been bought with bank loans, with shares as collateral, and later on banks were selling these shares in a falling market,” he added.
According to the IMF, the Balkans will be able to show high long-term sustainable growth of between 3.5 and 5 percent annually, and this is of course important for the long-term investment case. However, the question investors, including those present at Hotel InterContinental during East Capital's investor trip, are asking themselves is when, and why markets will start to perform.
“I think we will see the most significant turnaround during the summer, when Croatia enters the EU, Austrian and Italian banks start performing better and Russian banks also will be present,” Umberger said, pointing out that financing is very important for the region.
“For the time being, there is a lack of capital and governments need cash, which will push privatisation. These privatisations are potential triggers for the market,” Umberger said, and referred to recent events in his own home country Slovenia where markets have performed well lately.
“In September, the government finally announced that it would pass a number of reforms, of which privatisation was the most important, and together with its successful refinancing in the bond market, the Slovenian market is now up 20 percent,” Umberger said.
Besides privatisations, Umberger said strategic deals, which have been accelerating in the Balkans recently, may also explain why some markets have started to improve.
“Currently, there is a large discrepancy between market and strategic deals. A consumer company can be taken over for 9-10 times EBITDA, which is completely comparable, sector vise, to other regions, while you can buy a similar company in the market for 3-4 times,” he said.
When it comes to politics, EU accession is still key for most of the countries that are not yet part of the union. Despite its current troubles, Umberger argues that EU membership remains the best proposition.
“Countries will get more money out of the EU than they will pay in, but I think EU accession is more important as a process than the actual accession, because it means that there is a development of the legal and institutional framework, which is important for investors,” he said. “Also, all these countries are candidate countries, which means they already have a free trade agreement in place.”
The Balkans serves an important role for countries trying to get closer to Europe. Lately, Russian and Turkish state companies in particular have broadened their geographical reach across the Balkans, both organically and via acquisitions, and Umberger predicts changes in financing going forward.
“The Balkans is a clear convergence case and convergence growth will continue, but I think the sources of capital will be more diversified," he said. "Previously, the region was more or less relying on the EU in many ways, ranging from banking to FDIs (Foreign Direct Investments).”
Emil Holmström
[email protected]
http://www.eastcapital.com/en/node/15418